Thu 11 Jun · 20:00 · Mexico City
Mexico 2-1 South AfricaMedium-high
Hosts, opener, crowd edge. Not a gimme, but Mexico carry enough pressure and territory.
Fri 12 Jun · 03:00 · Guadalajara
Korea Republic 1-1 CzechiaBalanced
The squad-strength read is tight and this feels like one of the messier early fixtures. Draw is live.
Fri 12 Jun · 20:00 · Toronto
Canada 2-1 Bosnia & HerzegovinaMedium
Another host-side lean. Enough attacking intent to edge it, but probably not clean.
Sat 13 Jun · 02:00 · Inglewood, California
USA 2-1 ParaguayMedium-high
Home soil and a slightly stronger overall squad-depth profile push this toward the USA.
Sat 13 Jun · 20:00 · Santa Clara, California
Switzerland 2-0 QatarHigh
Cleaner squad-quality signal here. Switzerland look the safer structure pick.
Sat 13 Jun · 23:00 · East Rutherford, New Jersey
Brazil 2-0 MoroccoHigh
Brazil’s attacking ceiling and overall squad depth are just stronger. Respect Morocco, still lean Brazil.
Sun 14 Jun · 02:00 · Foxborough, Massachusetts
Scotland 1-0 HaitiMedium
Ugly rather than glamorous. Scotland feel likelier to land the one decisive moment.
Sun 14 Jun · 05:00 · Vancouver
Türkiye 2-1 AustraliaMedium
Not a blowout call, just a slight quality lean toward Türkiye.
Sun 14 Jun · 18:00 · Houston, Texas
Germany 3-0 CuraçaoHigh
One of the clearest first-round mismatches on the board.
Sun 14 Jun · 21:00 · Arlington, Texas
Netherlands 2-1 JapanMedium-high
Japan are awkward enough to score, but the Dutch still look stronger across the squad.
Mon 15 Jun · 00:00 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Côte d'Ivoire 1-1 EcuadorBalanced
One of the tighter round-one spots. Draw makes more sense than forcing a side.
Mon 15 Jun · 03:00 · Guadalupe
Sweden 2-0 TunisiaMedium-high
Clearer value edge and a less volatile profile than some of the other mid-tier games.
Mon 15 Jun · 17:00 · Atlanta, Georgia
Spain 3-0 Cabo VerdeHigh
Spain are one of the strongest squads in the entire pool. Don’t overthink this one.
Mon 15 Jun · 20:00 · Seattle, Washington
Belgium 1-1 EgyptBalanced
Belgium have the deeper average profile, but Egypt carry elite top-end threat through Salah.
Mon 15 Jun · 23:00 · Miami Gardens, Florida
Uruguay 2-1 Saudi ArabiaMedium
Uruguay shade it on squad quality, but it may stay uncomfortable for a long stretch.
Tue 16 Jun · 02:00 · Inglewood, California
IR Iran 1-0 New ZealandMedium
Not a high-event call. Iran look a touch stronger and more likely to grind it out.
Tue 16 Jun · 20:00 · East Rutherford, New Jersey
France 2-0 SenegalHigh
France have one of the strongest squad profiles in the whole tournament pool.
Tue 16 Jun · 23:00 · Foxborough, Massachusetts
Norway 2-0 IraqMedium-high
Haaland-driven top end plus a stronger all-round price shape makes Norway the lean.
Wed 17 Jun · 02:00 · Kansas City, Missouri
Argentina 2-0 AlgeriaHigh
Stable opening-round favourite. Strong enough attack, enough control, not much need to get cute.
Wed 17 Jun · 05:00 · Santa Clara, California
Austria 2-0 JordanMedium-high
Another cleaner mismatch on the squad-strength read we have.
Wed 17 Jun · 18:00 · Houston, Texas
Portugal 2-0 Congo DRHigh
Strong premium core, strong average squad value, sensible favourite.
Wed 17 Jun · 21:00 · Arlington, Texas
England 2-1 CroatiaMedium-high
England have the stronger squad-depth read, but Croatia are too competent for fake certainty.
Thu 18 Jun · 00:00 · Toronto
Ghana 1-1 PanamaBalanced
Another near-coin-flip. Safer to respect the draw than pretend one side is obvious.
Thu 18 Jun · 03:00 · Mexico City
Colombia 2-1 UzbekistanMedium
Colombia’s stronger high-end squad profile gives them the edge, but not by enough to call it easy.